India’s Diplomatic and Military Predicament Under Modi

India has always earned appreciation for maintaining a balanced, well calibrated foreign policy that has historically allowed New Delhi to safeguard its interests. Even in highly volatile geopolitical environment, India has relatively done well in managing its policy of non-alignment. This widely regarded foreign policy, however, is currently in acute crisis.

Under Narendra Modi’s government, India has entrapped itself in a rapidly shifting mosaic of global power politics. Instead of strategic pursuit of long-term national interests, this regime has caught itself up in strangulation of Hindutva ideology. New Delhi has spent so much in terms of time, money, and effort to build-up its ‘hegemonic reputation’ that it has gradually lost the grip of prevailing ground realities. It has actively projected itself as a reliable counter-weight to rising Dragon in East; a regional hegemon which can serve as net-security provider in entire Indian Ocean Region.

But this all is now crumbling under the weight of its own false pride.

At the center of India’s foreign policy apparatus stands National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a trusted acolyte of Modi. Yes, he is national security adviser but he now wields remarkable influence on India’s foreign policy also. The so called ‘Doval Doctrine’ focuses on conducting covert operations, punitive strikes, and the projection of strength through all means necessary. While this approach has scored points in domestic political arena, but has also imparted severe ramifications on the international scale.

Allegations of Indian government’s involvement in targeted killings abroad, including failed murder attempts of public figures in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada, have tarnished India’s diplomatic image and have degraded its credibility as a responsible state actor.

Consider the neighborhood of India. Currently there is not a single neighbor on good terms with New Delhi. India’s traditional coercive influence on Bangladesh, Sri-Lanka, Maldives, and even Nepal is steadily evaporating. The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and forced annexation of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) into union territories temporarily earned political leverage for BJP at home, but triggered crisis with its largest and strongest neighbor in North.

By including Aksai Chin in Ladakh’s territorial claims, India antagonized China. This resulted in military stand-off across the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) leading to Galwan clash in 2020 causing death of more than 20 Indian troops. In the end, China not only established control over large area of previously patrolled territory, but also consolidated its military infrastructure along the LAC, compelling India to deploy additional troops and thereof igniting an additional long lasting military front.

But definitely the most prominent example of India’s intimidation is its provocative attitude towards Pakistan. Instead of engaging in negotiation for peaceful resolution of Kashmir issue and other disputed territories, Modi’s India has always attempted to impose its distorted narrative of labeling Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorism. The impulsive attitude of New Delhi after Palwama and Pahalgam incidents is prime manifestation of this behavior.

In both cases, India categorically refused any investigation, unilaterally blamed Pakistan without any evidence, and resorted to military option against its nuclear armed neighbor. Quite remarkably, in both instances, India failed to achieve the requisite outcomes and instead suffered back to back humiliation against a smaller neighbor with smaller military and a struggling economy. Ironically, in both instances Modi government attempted to cover military and diplomatic setbacks by turning them into nationalist victories through a mass propaganda using media and military as tools of misinformation and disinformation.

During 2019 Balakot crisis, Indian Air Force (IAF) failed to hit ‘self-proclaimed terrorist infrastructure’ in Northern Pakistan. In a subsequent aftermath, IAF also lost a MiG-21 Bison against F-16 MLU of Pakistan Air Force (PAF). When the locals of Azad Kashmiris captured and dragged IAF pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan in mud, the whole world witnessed the actual combat efficiency of Indian military muscle.

Modi even coined that humiliation into political point scoring by blaming past Congress government for delaying deal of French Rafale fighter aircrafts. Ironically, when IAF faced off PAF again in May 2025, it was again the India which was collecting wreckage of its six downed fighter aircrafts including four prestigious Rafales.

The ego centric Modi government once again resorted to propaganda through media as well as military to paint favorable picture of entire crisis. But this time, it backfired and fallout extended beyond South Asia. U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he mediated a ceasefire between both nuclear-armed states. This assertion nullified India’s official narrative that the truce was not the result of US intervention but rather a request initiated by Pakistan.

Displeased by persistent obdurate stance of Modi sarkar, Washington imposed 50% tariffs on India on account of buying oil from Russia. For a government eager to project India as an economic powerhouse, these embarrassing developments were a major setback. In addition, the back to back humiliation of Indian military against a smaller neighbor significantly dented India’s credibility as a responsible state and dependable military, particularly in eyes of United States who once viewed India as a key partner for countering China’s rapid economic and military rise.

Ultimately, India’s current predicament can be traced to the BJP’s use of foreign and defense policy as an extension of its domestic Hindutva agenda. By framing Pakistan and Muslims as perpetual adversaries, Modi regime has prioritized political gains over strategic foresight. This has led to loss of politico-military credibility, and strained relations with neighbors as well as global powers. While India continues to project itself as a rising global power and a “Vishwaguru,” the reality is more sobering: vast economic inequality, persistent internal unrest, mounting diplomatic isolation, and military which fails to deliver.

Now the important questions are: can India recalibrate its foreign and defense policies and purge it from strains of Hindutva ideology? Will India recover from the consequences of its short-sighted actions by readopting a pragmatic approach? Perhaps only time will tell. Unless it does so, the country risks further alienation at a time when global challenges demand cooperation, stability, and credibility – something which India cannot sustain for long.